G20 Summit in India and the Way forward for Pakistan
This article represents a humble analysis of the G20 Summit in India 2023, its highlights and the way forward for Pakistan
On 5th September, the Council on Foreign Relations published an article by Manjari Chatterjee Miller on the upcoming G20 Summit to be held in India. Regarding the objectives India had on its plate, the article said, and I quote, ‘India seeks to balance geopolitical tensions while trying to bolster its role as a voice for the Global South’. Whether the Indian presidency over the 2023 G20 Summit proved to be a breakthrough in achieving its objectives needs to be critically evaluated in order to gauge the true significance of the summit. Furthermore, it is vital to place Pakistan in perspective and analyze the implications this summit posed for the country’s strategic and geo-political standing.
A. What is G20 and why is it important?
From 9–10th September 2023, India held the G20 (Group of 20) presidency in New Delhi with the underlying theme of “One Earth, One Family, One Future”. The G20 was formed in 1999, in the wake of the Asian financial crisis, to unite from twenty of the world’s largest established and emerging economies. A decade later, at the height of the global economic crisis, the G20 was elevated to include heads of state and government to address issues of intergovernmental importance, such as climate change, debt financing and public health.
This group holds immense importance as it constitutes 19 of the world’s wealthiest economies and the EU and cumulatively accounts for 85% of global economic output, two-third of the world’s population and nearly 75% of global exports. It has served as key forum for international issues, especially on the economic front, while also giving center stage to geo-political disputes.
As the 2023 host, India orchestrated the agenda around issues facing lower-income countries of the Global South such as rising debt levels, persistently high inflation, depreciating local currencies, food insecurity, and increasing severity of climate change.
B. Absolute Wins for India:
1. Consensus over Joint Declaration on the Russia-Ukraine Conflict:
It is worth applauding that the group was able to reach a consensus over global affairs, in what seems to be the most intransigent times for the world. A multi-polarized world, in a constant tug of war between geo-political powers, has been awakened owing to the Russian-Ukraine crisis. And while there were significant debates on how to address to the conflict, consensus was finally drawn. Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser, called the declaration a “significant milestone” and said it was “a vote of confidence that the G20 can come together to address a pressing range of issues.”
2. Pitch for African’s Union membership: AU Joins G20
The joint declaration also ratified the membership of the African Union (AU) in the G20, a group that has a full strength of about 55 members. It has a collective GDP of $3 trillion with about 1.4 billion people. The induction of such a diverse group would lead to extensive options for multi-lateral trade and development programs, with India at the forefront.
3. A Win for the Modi Government in the Wake of Upcoming Elections
Undoubtedly, the extravaganza that revolved around the event, months before it came into existence, has contributed much to Modi’s domestic political clout. 2023’s G20 was the biggest gathering of world leaders in India in the 40 years, since New Delhi held the Non-Aligned Movement and the Commonwealth, both in 1983. The Indian government successfully bolstered tourism, especially in Kashmir, by holding working group meetings in different parts of the country (not the norm in past presidencies). Ahead of upcoming state and national elections, Modi’s government is on the right track in terms of garnering both global publicity and political uproar domestically.
“India wants to showcase its clout and wants to show its rising power and that it has the ability to deliver a consensus.” - Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center
4. New Corridors — BRI’s Counterpart
India and Saudia Arabia utilized the G20 Summit to unveil a series of ambitious economic corridors designed to reshape trade routes and boost economic ties with the western hemisphere. The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor and the India-Europe Economic Corridor via West Asia did not only attract substantial interest due to their vast scale but also for their potential to enrich global interconnectedness and prosperity. World leaders, including U.S. President Joe Biden, extended their appreciation for these initiatives, acknowledging them as “revolutionary investments” capable of propelling worldwide economic progress.
C. Criticism over India’s G20 Presidency:
1. Joint Declaration — A Glorified Achievement or a Diplomatic Faux Pas?
There has been significant criticism over the tonality and choice of words used for the joint declaration over the Russia — Ukraine conflict. While India and the West celebrate the unanimous consensus, critics have emphasized upon how the declaration has been substantially watered down from last year. All references to Russia, Russian aggression, and Russia’s withdrawal in relation to the war in Ukraine that featured in last year’s joint statement at the G20 summit in Bali were removed. Instead, the declaration emphasized that states must “refrain from the threat or use of force to seek territorial acquisition” and that “the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is inadmissible”. This prompted Ukraine’s foreign ministry spokesperson Oleg Nikolenko to reprimand the declaration, calling it “nothing to be proud of”.
2. Hollow Promises on Climate Action Once Again
Climate Change mitigation is the new buzzword of the 21st century. Any and every world leader will speak over the need to take immediate action, but none will take the initiative. Same has been the case for this year’s G20 summit as well, with issues of climate financing, global debt, reform of institutions like the World Bank and a new “green development pact” among member states addressed in the joint statement. Amitabh Kant, India’s lead G20 negotiator, said the declaration was the “most ambitious document on climate action” so far, with commitments to triple renewable energy capacity globally by 2030 and a statement that developing countries will need $5.9tn in funding to achieve their climate targets. However, there was no new language on the G20’s efforts to move away from fossil fuels, with the member states — which are home to 93% of the world’s operating coal power plants — committing only to a “phase down” of coal.
3. Two Global Powers Absent — Does the G20 really matter then?
Owing to rising tensions between China and India over border disputes since the past three years, the Chinese president missed a leaders’ summit for the first since the summit initiated back in 2008. After India’s revocation of Article 370 and 35A in Jammu and Kashmir, clashes heightened as parts of the semi-autonomous region were controlled by China. This led to a long-running standoff in the rugged Himalayan area where each side has stationed tens of thousands of military personnel backed by artillery, tanks and fighter jets. New Delhi criticised Beijing for including Indian territories in China’s new map released on August 28.
However, analysts also attribute Xi Jinping’s absence as an indication of his philosophy of a ‘Rising East’ (against a Western-dominated G20) as well as his strong alliance with the Russian President Vladimir Putin. Similarly, Putin also skipped the Summit because of the issuance of the International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant against him over his alleged war crimes in Ukraine. The absence of these two global powers, those that form the strongest anti-western bloc, greatly undermined the significance of the summit. As a direct blow to this year’s theme, Beijing and Moscow’s absence pose a strategic threat against “One Earth, One Family, One Future”.
D. Way Forward for Pakistan
1. Look towards the East as West and Delhi’s grip tightens
Owing to the legacy relationship India and Russia have maintained since the Cold War, India has not openly criticized Russia for the Ukraine crisis. Both have preserved bilateral ties the encompass trade, arms agreement and oil imports. However, recent events indicate India’s outspoken tilt towards the West. In recent years, it has pared back its defense purchases from Russia, turning, instead, to the US, France and Israel. Moreover, Indian interests are now geopolitically being drawn to the Indo-Pacific region, where it sees Beijing as its prime competitor. There, it is collaborating with powers like Australia, France, Japan and the US.
“Oil is turning out to be a slippery glue, too.” — Al — Jazeera
“Russia is India’s past. Europe and [the] US are India’s future.” — Happymon Jacob, a foreign policy analyst and associate professor of disarmament studies at New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University
This paves the perfect breeding ground for Pakistan to position itself as a diplomatic, strategically-inwardly focused South Asian power amongst the Sino-Russian alliance.
2. Focus on soft power development — be a part of the corridor
After the unveiling of the two multilateral routes in this G20, Pakistan must seek the deterministic gains the trade corridors and development programs offer the entire South Asian region. Rather than seeing this as a counterpart to BRI, Pakistan must explore how to be a part of this economic corridor, using its relations with Saudi Arabia and the US. Pakistan seeks the opportunity to develop a foreign policy on the basis of geo-economics, and this may present the perfect opportunity to garner such a strategy.
3. Be a consistent voice for Kashmir
Pakistan should be the constant reminder this world needs to be reminded of the atrocities against innocent Kashmiris. Pakistan was apprehensive that India will use the multilateral event to downplay the significance of the India-Pakistan conflict over Kashmir and try to legitimize its control over the disputed territory. However, it must act as a stable force, utilizing these forums and voicing the human rights violations stimulated by Indian forces since 6th August 2019 after the revocation of Article 370 and 35A.
Conclusion
It is without a doubt that India has garnered international approval as a leading power in today’s interconnected world. 2023’s G20 showcased India’s soft power on a massive scale, translating into favorable economic, geo-political and strategic agreements. With initiatives such as the membership of AU, two new economic corridors with Saudia Arabia and leading a joint declaration on the Ukraine conflict, India has indeed showcased itself as an emerging South Asian leader. However, Pakistan must draw lessons from the New Delhi Summit and position its strategic South Asian power to leverage economic development both from the Western and Eastern blocs. It must act as a leader in diplomacy and dialogue, to speak against the atrocities in Kashmir, but also take part in multi-lateral developmental initiatives and improve its position as a soft power in South Asia.
